Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) shares jumped 6.38% to $5.50 yesterday after it raised its first-half earnings guidance and announced it had settled its long-running dispute with a US distributor.
In a statement to the ASX, the company said it expects its H1 F26 EBITS to be approximately $236 million, compared to the $225-235 million guidance range provided on 17 December 2025. TWE will give a full 2026 interim results update on 16 February 2026.
TWE has also reached a settlement agreement with Republic National Distributing Company (RNDC), one of its US distributors, regarding the closure of RNDC’s operations in California in September 2025.
As part of the settlement agreement, TWE will repurchase Treasury Americas and Treasury Collective portfolio inventory held by RNDC in California for its original sale value net of a confidential settlement that compensates TWE for the impact of RNDC’s closure in the state.
Taking account of the expected on-sale of this inventory to other customers, commencing this half, the net cash outflow in 2H26 relating to this settlement agreement is expected to be approximately $US65 million.
TWE will continue to partner with RNDC to distribute its portfolio across a number of other US markets and said it is supportive of RNDC’s recent initiatives to strengthen their business model and capital structure, including the planned divestment of several markets to Reyes Beverage Group and the establishment of new financing arrangements.
The company advised that in HI 2026, Treasury Americas depletions in states distributed by RNDC grew 2.7%.
TWE noted that the settlement does not alter the planned reduction of distributor inventory levels outside of California over a period of approximately two years, as disclosed to the market on 17 December 2025.
It has been a rollercoaster 12 months for TWE shares. JPMorgan Chase cut its relevant interest in TWE last week below substantial shareholder levels, while UBS downgraded the company to ‘sell’, citing a deteriorated risk-reward scenario as industry headwinds converge with company challenges.
However, French billionaire Olivier Goudet has been bullish in his enthusiasm for TWE, lifting his personal interest in the company to 5.05% in late 2025.