The Australian Retailers Association (ARA) is predicting retailers will rein in $9 billion during the festive final week before Christmas, with independent liquor retailers also reporting strong sales.

The ARA – in conjunction with Roy Morgan – re-forecast its Christmas sales prediction to $67.4 billion (up 1%) for the November-December 24 trading period. The forecast improved after a bumper Black Friday extravaganza and December’s interest rate reprieve.    

ARA CEO Paul Zahra said retailers had built momentum during the successful Black Friday sales: “November trading by all accounts appears to have been strong, despite cost-of-living pressures, as shoppers capitalised on unprecedented deals and sales to tick off their Christmas lists early, and this has helped prop up our pre-Christmas projections somewhat.”

Metcash Liquor data reflects the ARA results. The company recently revealed that its total sales in liquor had increased 1.5% in November.

Metcash CEO Doug Jones recently told the Australian Financial Review that its competitive advantage was “the local service, the convenience, the much improved store offer”, which was something that its shoppers could get “and not have to pay any more for”.

Cellarbrations at Gisborne owner Tony Bongiovanni said that “despite the negative talk from some media channels” retail liquor sales were as strong as ever at his store as it entered the last week before Christmas.

“We are seeing early purchasing from smart consumers in all categories, with the stand-outs being red wine, whisky, craft beers, Champagne and spirits, with a strong emphasis on locally-produced products,” he said.

Metcash also reported in its HY24 results that higher cost of living pressures had led to more shoppers to switch to lower-priced value choices with the beer and RTD categories delivering the highest growth.

Bongiovanni agreed: “Home made cocktails are no longer the strong focus as consumers are now looking to the ready-made category.”

He said another trend his store was seeing was a major decline in the non-alcoholic wine category, however sales remained “very strong” for non-alcoholic beer.

“As always, gifting liquor is still strong with more and more consumers walking in with photos on their phones of the products they are seeking.” 

“Overall it’s shaping up to be a strong trading period with New Year’s Eve around the corner.”