Fonto has launched new research—Moments in Alcohol—that shows lower purchase frequency has been the major contributor to declining liquor retail sales.

The research and data group’s report shows average purchase frequency for the December quarter reduced to 5.8, down from seven purchases during the same period in 2024. Additionally, 29% of buyers were actively weighing up alternative retailers at the time of purchase.

Fonto CEO Ben Dixon said brands that invest in engagement, promotions and ranging are best placed to capture this undecided segment.

“Fonto data paints a clear picture of where the growth opportunity lies. Visitation frequency has come under pressure, but the basket size opportunity remains strong particularly when customers are actively engaged in-store. Retailers who win on engagement will win on revenue.”

The banners customers are favouring

Dan Murphy’s led the major chain retailers in the December quarter, with 55% of its customers stating they were very satisfied. BWS and Liquorland followed at 44% and 41% respectively, with both brands showing strength in staff friendliness.

Dan Murphy’s also recorded the highest average basket size ($69) and continued to grow share of wallet (+6.1% YoY), with customers shifting spend from First Choice and Cellarbrations. BWS similarly grew share of wallet by 3.3% to 52% overall.

This will come as welcome news to Endeavour Group’s new CEO Jayne Hrdlicka, who recently announced the Group’s half-year FY26 results, with revenue up 0.9 per cent to $6.7 billion but net profit falling to $247 million, down more than 17% year-on-year.

Hrdlicka assured shareholders that Endeavour Group’s “passion for delivering great experiences for our customers” together with its strategy to compete and win in a market where consumers remain focused on value for money, would drive future sales growth.

Liquorland share of wallet grew 4.5% year on year, with customers shifting spend primarily from First Choice and BWS.

Dixon said this was a positive signal that the brand’s consolidation of First Choice Liquor stores under the Liquorland
banner appeared to be retaining customers.

He added that there was a significant and largely untapped upsell opportunity in liquor retail. Fonto data shows that when
customers interact with retail staff or in-store activations, the proportion who end up buying more than they
planned doubles from 15% to 31%.

Yet he noted that staff training remains an area of underperformance. While friendliness and helpfulness of staff rank number one and number three in what drives customer satisfaction, staff knowledge of promotions & deals ranks only sixth, a gap that represents real lost revenue across the category.

Capturing the Gen Z market

According to Fonto, Generation Z presents a distinctive profile in liquor retail. Despite similar average basket sizes to other
generations ($44), Gen Z shops at half the frequency of Generation X (9.6 vs 20.2 annual visits).

Their purchase occasions are predominantly event-driven; 40% are shopping for a specific occasion, which is twice the rate of any other generation. Additionally, one in three enter the store unsure of what to buy.

Notably, nearly 30% of Gen Z buyers are still actively considering alternative retailers at the moment of purchase, making them particularly responsive to in-store experience and last-mile engagement.

Fonto said his combination of event-driven missions and openness to suggestion makes Gen Z uniquely responsive to
in-store activation, ranging and staff recommendations, represented a significant long-term engagement opportunity for retailers who get the experience right.

The drinks driving on-premise sales

In a first for Fonto, the Moments in Alcohol report includes early data from its new on-premise measurement capability, tracking consumer spending behaviour at bars, restaurants, pubs, clubs and sporting venues.

The initial data reveals that beer dominates on-premise drink orders at 31%, followed by soft drinks (28%) and wine including spritzers (9%).

In terms of venue preferences, Gen Z gravitates toward restaurants (37%) and bars or clubs (35%), Millennials are the dominant group in pubs and hotels (44%) and cafes (36%), while Gen X is most strongly represented at RSL and sports venues (37%).

Fonto said these patterns point to distinct opportunities for suppliers to reach different cohorts through targeted venue activation strategies.

Critically for liquor suppliers and retailers, Fonto data shows a strong link between on-premise trial and off- premise purchase intent. Of consumers who drank rum at a venue, 61% said they were very likely to buy the same product at a bottle shop afterwards. The same was true for 54% of whisky drinkers and 50% of RTD consumers suggesting that on-premise occasions are an important driver of retail demand.

By contrast, vodka (26%), cider (30%) and sparkling wine (31%) showed lower retail conversion intent, indicating that venue trial alone may not be enough to drive retail purchase.

“On-premise and off-premise have always been connected, but until now we have had limited data to quantify that relationship. Our early findings suggest that investment in venue activation and trial can meaningfully influence retail sales, and that the strength of that link varies significantly by category,” Dixon concluded.