New data from Wine Australia shows Australian wine exports to the United States declined to their lowest value in over two decades in the year ending June 2025.

Exports declined by 10% in volume to 111 million litres and 12% in value to $314 million during the period.

Wine Australia said the US wine market continued to face headwinds that developed after the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to reduced overall wine consumption in the last five years.

Health and wellness concerns, particularly among older wine consumers, lack of recruitment to the category from younger generations, increased competition from other alcoholic beverages, high wholesaler inventories and ongoing economic and political uncertainty, including import tariffs, have all contributed to a suppressed outlook for wine exports to the market in the near-term.

The new normal for the Chinese market

Globally, Australian wine exports increased by 13% in value to $2.48 billion and 3% in volume to 639 million litres, according to Wine Australia’s Export Report.

Wine Australia Manager, Market Insights Peter Bailey said the latest data showed the impact of the China market reopening in March 2024 was beginning to stabilise.

“The year-on-year increase in exports was almost entirely driven by mainland China after tariffs on Australian bottled wine were removed at the end of March 2024,” he said.

“Over 12 months have passed since tariffs in mainland China were removed and the initial surge in exports has eased, resulting in 85 million litres of wine exports to the market in the 12 months ended June 2025, worth $893 million.

“The quarter ended June 2025 was 35 per cent smaller in value than the same quarter in the previous year. This indicates that the level of exports to mainland China may be normalising after the initial re-stocking phase.”

“The return of mainland China offers a valuable market, with global wine consumption at its lowest level since 1961, However, it has only had a small impact on total export volume, as the volume shipped to mainland China is half of what it was at its peak in 2018.

“This reflects the decline in wine consumption in the Chinese market over the last five years; the market is now only a third of the size it was in 2019. In the past 12 months, imports from France, Italy, Spain, and Chile have all declined.”

Exports to the rest of the world declined by 11% in value to $1.59 billion and 6% in volume to 554 million litres. While the decline in value was mainly driven by Hong Kong as sales transitioned to mainland China, the drop in volume reflects a reduced supply of Australian wine available for export after three smaller vintages, as well as declining demand from key export markets.

Exports to the United Kingdom declined by 1% in value to $350 million and 6% in volume to 204 million litres.

Wine Australia said the last 12 months had been relatively stable by export value, despite significant economical and administrative headwinds in the market, including cost-of-living pressures and duty reforms.

Driving the decline was unpackaged exports (to be packaged in market), while packaged exports with an average value between $2.50 and $4.99 and above $7.50 per litre grew by 4% and 20% in volume respectively. Australian wine maintains its market leadership in the UK with a 23% share of off-premise wine sales.

In the 12 months ended June 2025, Australian wine exports to Canada increased by 7% in value to $157 million and declined by 10% in volume to 61 million litres. The decline in volume is driven by a decline in unpackaged exports after a surge in this type of exports during 2023. The rise in overall export value to the market can be attributed to a growth in packaged exports in the last 12 months.

The growth in export value during the June 2025 quarter is possibly assisted by increased sales of Australian brands currently on the shelf in Canada, following the removal of American wines across Canadian liquor boards in response to US tariffs on Canadian products.

Exports to Southeast Asia increased by 4% in volume, driven by an increase in the volume of shipments to Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia. While there is year-to-year volatility in this region due to the emerging nature of the wine category, exports have grown by an average rate of 6% in volume per year since 2020.

Top 5 destinations by value

• Mainland China, up 123% to $893 million
• United Kingdom, down 1% to $350 million
• United States, down 12% to $314 million
• Canada, up 7% to $157 million
• Hong Kong, down 54% to $127 million

Top 5 destinations by volume

• United Kingdom, down 6% to 204 million litres
• United States, down 10% to 111 million litres
• Mainland China, up 162% to 85 million litres
• Canada, down 10% to 61 million litres
• New Zealand, down 9% to 25 million litres