The 2025 Retail Drinks Industry Summit has revealed independent liquor retailers are winning market share as a result of their agility and differentiated category mix.

MST Marquee Senior Analyst Craig Woolford told attendees: “The independents won during COVID-19 and have retained those customers. The differential in growth between independents and majors has narrowed, but there’s been no swing back to the majors at this stage.

“Over the last five to six years, we’ve seen independents do better. “In many retail industries, in many markets around the world, independent retailers are inherently agile – they understand what the consumer trends are and can move with those trends.

“There’s no doubt that independents in the liquor industry in Australia have done a very good job of moving to the demand that trends that we’ve seen unfold, and have as a result, won market share.”

Woolford has been following retail performance in Australia for more than 20 years. Prior to joining MST Marquee, Woolford was Head of Research for Citi Australia/NZ. He is regularly cited in industry journals and the media for his insights about the state of Australian retailing and performance of the major companies across the retail and food and beverages sectors.

He reports retail liquor and at-home food sales rose 2.5% in September and predicts it will be a strong festive season for the Australian industry.

“Australian retail sales rose 4.7% in September 2025 year-on-year, an improvement on August 2025 trends,” he said.

“Growth was stronger across all retail categories. While the RBA has paused on further rate cuts, house price growth looks to be accelerating, which is supportive of better retail sales growth. It should be a decent Christmas for most retailers, just watch for the levels of discounting.”

Among the big box retailers during FY25, Endeavour Group reported a retail sales decline of 1.2% to $10 billion. Full year sales for the group reached $12.1 billion, down 0.3% on a 52-week basis, with net profit falling by 16% to $426 million over the year.

Coles Liquor’s full-year results included liquor sales revenue of $3.7 billion, up 1.1% compared to the prior year. However, in the fourth quarter, sales revenue declined by 0.5% and comparable sales declined by 0.6%.

Leading wholesaler Metcash, which champions independent retailers, celebrated its liquor pillar growing by 3.3% in FY25.

Metcash said: “In liquor, independents continued to outperform the market, led by the IBA network. Total sales increased 3.4% to $5.3 billion with growth accelerating in the second half, underpinned by continued shopper preference for the convenience and quality of the independents’ differentiated offer.

“There was strong growth across all major IBA brands including Cellarbrations, The Bottle-O, IGA Liquor and Porters.”